You probably noticed that we got a brand new grand slam winner in the last three seasons of the US Open.
2020 Dominic Thiem – 2021 Daniil Medvedev – 2022 Carlos Alcaraz
And if you look closely you will see that Del Potro in 2009, Murray in 2012, and Cilic in 2014 scored their first big title in New York. Also, Stan Wawrinka won the US Open in 2016 (his third and last Grand Slam trophy) and disrupted the Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal dominance of the last twenty seasons.
In 20 years (from 2004), Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon were won just two times by someone other than above mentioned great trio.
Australian Open: 2005 Safin – 2014 Wawrinka
French Open: 2004 Gauido – 2015 Wawrinka
Wimbledon: 2013 & 2016 Murray
US Open is different. Seven times out of nineteen seasons we saw someone not named Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal holding the trophy.
US Open: 2009 del Potro – 2012 Murray – 2014 Cilic – 2016 Wawrinka – 2020 Thiem – 2021 Medvedev – 2022 Alcaraz
The last three seasons could be the result of Djokovic’s absence, or Federer and Nadal’s deteriorating health. But seeing seven different players winning in the last 19 years tells a different story.
More about Grand Slam winners is here
Is it a coincidence?
Quite the contrary, the US Open, the last grand slam of the season is the perfect chance to win your first Grand Slam.
Older players are usually more tired in September than in January or May. Injuries take out some competitors off the field. Therefore, the chance of any talented player winning his first Grand Slam in New York is bigger than in Melbourne, Paris or London.
Would it be different this year?
Does it mean that Tsitsipas, Rune, Sinner, Fritz or Ruud will win it this year? It is definitely possible but I would not bet on it.
This year we will see Djokovic back at Flushing Meadows after two years (in 2020 he was disqualified in the quarterfinals, in 2021 and 2022 he did not participate due to missing covid vaccination).
Djokovic playing on a reduced schedule showed big form at all three grand slams (wins at Melbourne and Paris, finalist at Wimbledon) so far. Carlos Alcaraz will be there without any pressure to prove how good he is as he already has two Grand Slam titles (US Open 2022 & Wimbledon 2023) in his pocket.
Daniil Medvedev is looking good, focusing on delivering the promise from 2021 that he will win more.
That means I would go with one of those three players (probably Alcaraz) this year and not count on the new name.
What do you think?
Who will win Men US Open 2023 singles?
- Djokovic (79%, 46 Votes)
- Medvedev (21%, 12 Votes)
Total Voters: 104
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