Junior Grand Slam Winners – What are their chances to make TOP 10 singles ranking?

updated 7.10.2017 – Simona Halep makes it to WTA no.1 position, we updated numbers accordingly
all data valid on 07.10.2017

I was wondering going through the names of winners of Junior Grand Slam tournaments in 2017. Fokina, Piros, Liu, Anisimova, Kostyuk, Osuigwhe, Popyrin, Wu. How many of them will get to top ten ATP and WTA rankings in coming years?

I wish them all to become ATP/WTA tennis professionals, winning as many tournaments as possible. But how real are their chances? That is the question which bothers me for a long time. Now it is time to get answers.

How we proceed

We downloaded a list of all Boys and Girls Grand Slam Winners from the year 1997 till 2017 (you will find the full list at the end of the article). Then we decided to skip the year 2017 as it is hard to get to ATP and WTA ranking when you play just junior tournaments. So we have data from twenty years [1997 – 2016]* to search. Then we find out best singles ranking for every player in the list. This gives us a pretty good overview what percentage of players winning Junior Grand Slam tournament did make it to ATP or WTA TOP 100, TOP 10 or even to number 1 in singles ranking.

*Somebody can object that to keep the year 2016 in data pool will influence the results negatively. We decided to keep it as the winner of Wimbledon Juniors 2016, Denis Shapovalov made it to top 100 without any problems.

How many winners of Junior Grand Slams do make it to TOP 100, TOP 10 or Number 1 in singles ranking?

In years 1997 to 2016, we watched 80 junior Grand Slam tournaments and got 70 boys and 68 girls names of Grand Slam winners (You will find the full list at the end of the article).

The number is not 80 and 80 because 9 of boys and 11 of girls were able to win junior Grand Slam tournament more than once. One boy (Gael Monfils in 2004) and one girl (Anastasia Pavlyuchenko in 2006 and 2007) even won 3 junior Grand Slams.

Question 1 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to number 1 position in ATP or WTA Singles Ranking?

Boys 3 of 70 4.29%Federer, Murray, Roddick
Girls 6 of 68 8.82%Azarenka, Wozniacki, Jankovic, Pliskova Karolina, Henin, Halep

Question 2 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to ATP or WTA TOP 10 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 16 of 70 22.86%
Girls 15 of 68 22.08%

Question 3 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to ATP or WTA TOP 100 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 42 of 70 60.00%
Girls 57 of 68 83.82%

Question 4 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners who won more than once made it to ATP or WTA TOP 10 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 4 of 9 44.44%Monfils, Roddick, Dimitrov, Gasquet
Girls 3 of 11 27.27%Radwanska, Bencic, Azarenka

Question 5 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners who won more than once made it to ATP or WTA TOP 100 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys 7 of 9 77.78%
Girls 11 of 11 100%

SUMMARY

Numbers usually do not lie but I am aware of weaknesses of our answers. Tennis is an individual sport and we do not know the personal fate of particular players. We do not know why Filip Peliwo or Luke Saville never made it to ATP TOP 100 after winning 2 Junior Grand Slams. We do not know why Rafa Nadal newer won Junior Grand Slam and despite it become ATP number 1. We do not know what happens to another talented Spaniard Carlos Cuadrado who won Junior French Open in 2001 but never made it to ATP TOP 100.

What we know is that in past 20 years all 11 girls who won Junior Grand Slams more than once made it to WTA TOP 100. Three of them made it even to WTA TOP 10.

We know, that 44% (or 4 of 9) boys who won Junior Grand Slam more than once in past 20 years make it to ATP TOP 10. We also know that 2 of 9 of these boys did not make it to ATP TOP 100.

We know that 60% of boys and 83% of girls who won at least one Junior Grand Slam tournament in past 20 years made it to ATP/WTA TOP 100. More than 20% of winners are able to reach TOP 10 in singles ranking. And 3 boys and 5 girls out of them were able to reach the absolute top, number 1 of singles ranking.

My original question was “How many of 2017 Junior Grand Slam Winners will make it to ATP and WTA TOP 10 Singles Ranking. Statistics give me answer. One of the boys and one of the girls should make it. And two boys and three girls should make it to TOP 100. So better to remember their names. But do they make it in reality? Just time will answer.

 

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DATA POOL [1997 – 2017]

LIST OF PLAYERS WINNING JUNIOR GRAND SLAM FROM 1997

PlayerNumber of Junior Grand Slams WinsBest ATP ranking reached
 Gaël Monfils36
 Andy Roddick21
 Bernard Tomic217
Daniel Elsner292
 Donald Young238
 Filip Peliwo2223
 Grigor Dimitrov28
 Luke Saville2152
 Richard Gasquet27
 Agustín Velotti1290
 Alexander Zverev14
 Alexandre Sidorenko1168
 Andrey Kuznetsov138
 Andrey Rublev137
 Andy Murray11
Arnaud di Pascale139
 Bjorn Fratangelo199
 Borna Ćorić133
 Brydan Klein1118
 Carlos Cuadrado1222
 Clément Morel1387
 Daniel Berta1637
David Nalbandian13
 Denis Shapovalov151
 Dušan Lojda1161
 Félix Auger-Aliassime1161
 Fernando González15
 Florin Mergea1243
 Geoffrey Blancaneaux1289
 Gianluigi Quinzi1226
 Gilles Müller121
 Guillermo Coria13
 Christian Garín1187
 Jack Sock114
 Janko Tipsarević18
 Jarkko Nieminen113
 Jérémy Chardy125
 Jiří Veselý135
 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga15
Julien Jeanpierre1133
 Jürgen Melzer18
 Kimmer Coppejans197
Kristian Pless165
 Marcos Baghdatis18
 Marin Čilić15
 Martin Kližan124
 Márton Fucsovics199
 Nick Kyrgios113
 Nicolas Mahut137
 Noah Rubin1163
 Oliver Anderson1639
 Oliver Golding1327
 Omar Jasika1239
 Paul-Henri Mathieu112
 Reilly Opelka1125
 Ričardas Berankis150
 Roger Federer11
 Roman Safiullin1314
 Roman Valent1300
 Ryan Sweeting164
 Stanislas Wawrinka13
 Taylor Fritz153
 Thiemo de Bakker140
 Tiago Fernandes1371
 Todd Reid1105
 Tommy Paul1157
 Vladimir Ignatic1129
Wesley Whitehouse1214
 Yang Tsung-hua1164
 Yuki Bhambri188

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PlayerNumber of Junior Grand Slams WinsBest WTA ranking reached
 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova313
 Agnieszka Radwańska22
 Ana Konjuh220
 Angelique Widjaja255
 Barbora Strýcová216
 Belinda Bencic27
Cara Black231
 Kirsten Flipkens213
 María Emilia Salerni265
 Victoria Azarenka21
 Virginie Razzano216
 Ágnes Szávay1995
 Alizé Cornet111
 An-Sophie Mestach198
 Anastasia Potapova1234
 Anikó Kapros144
 Anna-Lena Grönefeld114
 Annika Beck137
 Arantxa Rus161
 Ashleigh Barty123
 Caroline Wozniacki11
 Coco Vandeweghe116
 Dalma Gálfi1136
 Daria Gavrilova120
 Daria Kasatkina124
 Elina Svitolina13
 Elizaveta Kulichkova187
 Eugenie Bouchard15
 Grace Min197
 Heather Watson138
 Iroda Tulyaganova116
 Jelena Dokić14
 Jelena Janković11
 Jelena Kostanić132
 Jeļena Ostapenko18
Justine Henin11
 Kaia Kanepi115
 Karolína Plíšková11
 Katarina Srebotnik120
 Kateryna Bondarenko129
 Kayla Day1122
 Kristína Kučová171
 Kristina Mladenovic112
 Kristýna Plíšková135
 Ksenia Pervak137
 Laura Robson127
 Lina Krasnoroutskaya125
 Lourdes Domínguez140
 Maria Kirilenko110
 Marie Bouzková1169
 Marion Bartoli17
 Michaëlla Krajicek130
Mirjana Lucic120
 Nadia Petrova13
 Noppawan Lertcheewakarn1149
 Ons Jabeur183
 Paula Badosa Gibert1193
 Rebeka Masarova1284
 Samantha Crawford198
 Sesil Karatantcheva135
 Shahar Pe’er111
 Simona Halep11
 Sofya Zhuk1143
 Taylor Townsend194
 Tereza Mihalíková1429
 Urszula Radwańska129
 Vera Dushevina131
 Vera Lapko1180

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BOYS WINNERS OF GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS FROM THE YEAR 1997

YEARAUSTRALIAN OPENFRENCH OPENWIMBLEDONUS OPEN
1997Daniel ElsnerDaniel ElsnerWesley WhitehouseArnaud di Pasquale
1998  Julien Jeanpierre  Fernando González  Roger Federer  David Nalbandian
1999  Kristian Pless  Guillermo Coria  Jürgen Melzer  Jarkko Nieminen
2000  Andy Roddick  Paul-Henri Mathieu  Nicolas Mahut  Andy Roddick
2001  Janko Tipsarević  Carlos Cuadrado  Roman Valent  Gilles Müller
2002  Clément Morel  Richard Gasquet  Todd Reid  Richard Gasquet
2003  Marcos Baghdatis  Stanislas Wawrinka  Florin Mergea  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
2004  Gaël Monfils  Gaël Monfils  Gaël Monfils  Andy Murray
2005  Donald Young  Marin Čilić  Jérémy Chardy  Ryan Sweeting
2006  Alexandre Sidorenko  Martin Kližan  Thiemo de Bakker  Dušan Lojda
2007  Brydan Klein  Vladimir Ignatic  Donald Young  Ričardas Berankis
2008  Bernard Tomic  Yang Tsung-hua  Grigor Dimitrov  Grigor Dimitrov
2009  Yuki Bhambri  Daniel Berta  Andrey Kuznetsov  Bernard Tomic
2010  Tiago Fernandes  Agustín Velotti  Márton Fucsovics  Jack Sock
2011  Jiří Veselý  Bjorn Fratangelo  Luke Saville  Oliver Golding
2012  Luke Saville  Kimmer Coppejans  Filip Peliwo  Filip Peliwo
2013  Nick Kyrgios  Christian Garín  Gianluigi Quinzi  Borna Ćorić
2014  Alexander Zverev  Andrey Rublev  Noah Rubin  Omar Jasika
2015  Roman Safiullin  Tommy Paul  Reilly Opelka  Taylor Fritz
2016  Oliver Anderson  Geoffrey Blancaneaux  Denis Shapovalov  Félix Auger-Aliassime
2017  Zsombor Piros  Alexei Popyrin  Alejandro Davidovich Fokina  Wu Yibing

Source: Wikipedia

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GIRLS WINNERS OF GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS FROM THE YEAR 1997

YEARAUSTRALIAN OPENFRENCH OPENWIMBLEDONUS OPEN
1997Mirjana LucicJustine HeninCara BlackCara Black
1998  Jelena Kostanić  Nadia Petrova  Katarina Srebotnik  Jelena Dokić
1999  Virginie Razzano  Lourdes Domínguez  Iroda Tulyaganova  Lina Krasnoroutskaya
2000  Anikó Kapros  Virginie Razzano  María Emilia Salerni  María Emilia Salerni
2001  Jelena Janković  Kaia Kanepi  Angelique Widjaja  Marion Bartoli
2002  Barbora Strýcová  Angelique Widjaja  Vera Dushevina  Maria Kirilenko
2003  Barbora Strýcová  Anna-Lena Grönefeld  Kirsten Flipkens  Kirsten Flipkens
2004  Shahar Pe’er  Sesil Karatantcheva  Kateryna Bondarenko  Michaëlla Krajicek
2005  Victoria Azarenka  Ágnes Szávay  Agnieszka Radwańska  Victoria Azarenka
2006  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova  Agnieszka Radwańska  Caroline Wozniacki  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
2007  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova  Alizé Cornet  Urszula Radwańska  Kristína Kučová
2008  Arantxa Rus  Simona Halep  Laura Robson  Coco Vandeweghe
2009  Ksenia Pervak  Kristina Mladenovic  Noppawan Lertcheewakarn  Heather Watson
2010  Karolína Plíšková  Elina Svitolina  Kristýna Plíšková  Daria Gavrilova
2011  An-Sophie Mestach  Ons Jabeur  Ashleigh Barty  Grace Min
2012  Taylor Townsend  Annika Beck  Eugenie Bouchard  Samantha Crawford
2013  Ana Konjuh  Belinda Bencic  Belinda Bencic  Ana Konjuh
2014  Elizaveta Kulichkova  Daria Kasatkina  Jeļena Ostapenko  Marie Bouzková
2015  Tereza Mihalíková  Paula Badosa Gibert  Sofya Zhuk  Dalma Gálfi
2016  Vera Lapko  Rebeka Masarova  Anastasia Potapova  Kayla Day
2017  Marta Kostyuk  Whitney Osuigwe  Claire Liu  Amanda Anisimova

Source: Wikipedia

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