Junior Grand Slam Winners – What are their chances to make TOP 10 singles ranking?

updated 7.10.2017 – Simona Halep makes it to WTA no.1 position, we updated numbers accordingly
all data valid on 07.10.2017

I was wondering going through the names of winners of Junior Grand Slam tournaments in 2017. Fokina, Piros, Liu, Anisimova, Kostyuk, Osuigwhe, Popyrin, Wu. How many of them will get to top ten ATP and WTA rankings in coming years?

I wish them all to become ATP/WTA tennis professionals, winning as many tournaments as possible. But how real are their chances? That is the question which bothers me for a long time. Now it is time to get answers.

How we proceed

We downloaded a list of all Boys and Girls Grand Slam Winners from the year 1997 till 2017 (you will find the full list at the end of the article). Then we decided to skip the year 2017 as it is hard to get to ATP and WTA ranking when you play just junior tournaments. So we have data from twenty years [1997 – 2016]* to search. Then we find out best singles ranking for every player in the list. This gives us a pretty good overview what percentage of players winning Junior Grand Slam tournament did make it to ATP or WTA TOP 100, TOP 10 or even to number 1 in singles ranking.

*Somebody can object that to keep the year 2016 in data pool will influence the results negatively. We decided to keep it as the winner of Wimbledon Juniors 2016, Denis Shapovalov made it to top 100 without any problems.

How many winners of Junior Grand Slams do make it to TOP 100, TOP 10 or Number 1 in singles ranking?

In years 1997 to 2016, we watched 80 junior Grand Slam tournaments and got 70 boys and 68 girls names of Grand Slam winners (You will find the full list at the end of the article).

The number is not 80 and 80 because 9 of boys and 11 of girls were able to win junior Grand Slam tournament more than once. One boy (Gael Monfils in 2004) and one girl (Anastasia Pavlyuchenko in 2006 and 2007) even won 3 junior Grand Slams.

Question 1 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to number 1 position in ATP or WTA Singles Ranking?

Boys  3 of 70  4.29% Federer, Murray, Roddick
Girls  6 of 68  8.82% Azarenka, Wozniacki, Jankovic, Pliskova Karolina, Henin, Halep

Question 2 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to ATP or WTA TOP 10 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys  16 of 70  22.86%
Girls  15 of 68  22.08%

Question 3 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners made it to ATP or WTA TOP 100 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys  42 of 70  60.00%
Girls  57 of 68  83.82%

Question 4 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners who won more than once made it to ATP or WTA TOP 10 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys  4 of 9  44.44% Monfils, Roddick, Dimitrov, Gasquet
Girls  3 of 11  27.27% Radwanska, Bencic, Azarenka

Question 5 – How many of Junior Grand Slam Winners who won more than once made it to ATP or WTA TOP 100 position in Singles Ranking?

Boys  7 of 9  77.78%
Girls  11 of 11  100%

SUMMARY

Numbers usually do not lie but I am aware of weaknesses of our answers. Tennis is an individual sport and we do not know the personal fate of particular players. We do not know why Filip Peliwo or Luke Saville never made it to ATP TOP 100 after winning 2 Junior Grand Slams. We do not know why Rafa Nadal newer won Junior Grand Slam and despite it become ATP number 1. We do not know what happens to another talented Spaniard Carlos Cuadrado who won Junior French Open in 2001 but never made it to ATP TOP 100.

What we know is that in past 20 years all 11 girls who won Junior Grand Slams more than once made it to WTA TOP 100. Three of them made it even to WTA TOP 10.

We know, that 44% (or 4 of 9) boys who won Junior Grand Slam more than once in past 20 years make it to ATP TOP 10. We also know that 2 of 9 of these boys did not make it to ATP TOP 100.

We know that 60% of boys and 83% of girls who won at least one Junior Grand Slam tournament in past 20 years made it to ATP/WTA TOP 100. More than 20% of winners are able to reach TOP 10 in singles ranking. And 3 boys and 5 girls out of them were able to reach the absolute top, number 1 of singles ranking.

My original question was “How many of 2017 Junior Grand Slam Winners will make it to ATP and WTA TOP 10 Singles Ranking. Statistics give me answer. One of the boys and one of the girls should make it. And two boys and three girls should make it to TOP 100. So better to remember their names. But do they make it in reality? Just time will answer.

 

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DATA POOL [1997 – 2017]

LIST OF PLAYERS WINNING JUNIOR GRAND SLAM FROM 1997

Player Number of Junior Grand Slams Wins Best ATP ranking reached
 Gaël Monfils 3 6
 Andy Roddick 2 1
 Bernard Tomic 2 17
Daniel Elsner 2 92
 Donald Young 2 38
 Filip Peliwo 2 223
 Grigor Dimitrov 2 8
 Luke Saville 2 152
 Richard Gasquet 2 7
 Agustín Velotti 1 290
 Alexander Zverev 1 4
 Alexandre Sidorenko 1 168
 Andrey Kuznetsov 1 38
 Andrey Rublev 1 37
 Andy Murray 1 1
Arnaud di Pascale 1 39
 Bjorn Fratangelo 1 99
 Borna Ćorić 1 33
 Brydan Klein 1 118
 Carlos Cuadrado 1 222
 Clément Morel 1 387
 Daniel Berta 1 637
David Nalbandian 1 3
 Denis Shapovalov 1 51
 Dušan Lojda 1 161
 Félix Auger-Aliassime 1 161
 Fernando González 1 5
 Florin Mergea 1 243
 Geoffrey Blancaneaux 1 289
 Gianluigi Quinzi 1 226
 Gilles Müller 1 21
 Guillermo Coria 1 3
 Christian Garín 1 187
 Jack Sock 1 14
 Janko Tipsarević 1 8
 Jarkko Nieminen 1 13
 Jérémy Chardy 1 25
 Jiří Veselý 1 35
 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1 5
Julien Jeanpierre 1 133
 Jürgen Melzer 1 8
 Kimmer Coppejans 1 97
Kristian Pless 1 65
 Marcos Baghdatis 1 8
 Marin Čilić 1 5
 Martin Kližan 1 24
 Márton Fucsovics 1 99
 Nick Kyrgios 1 13
 Nicolas Mahut 1 37
 Noah Rubin 1 163
 Oliver Anderson 1 639
 Oliver Golding 1 327
 Omar Jasika 1 239
 Paul-Henri Mathieu 1 12
 Reilly Opelka 1 125
 Ričardas Berankis 1 50
 Roger Federer 1 1
 Roman Safiullin 1 314
 Roman Valent 1 300
 Ryan Sweeting 1 64
 Stanislas Wawrinka 1 3
 Taylor Fritz 1 53
 Thiemo de Bakker 1 40
 Tiago Fernandes 1 371
 Todd Reid 1 105
 Tommy Paul 1 157
 Vladimir Ignatic 1 129
Wesley Whitehouse 1 214
 Yang Tsung-hua 1 164
 Yuki Bhambri 1 88

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Player Number of Junior Grand Slams Wins Best WTA ranking reached
 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 3 13
 Agnieszka Radwańska 2 2
 Ana Konjuh 2 20
 Angelique Widjaja 2 55
 Barbora Strýcová 2 16
 Belinda Bencic 2 7
Cara Black 2 31
 Kirsten Flipkens 2 13
 María Emilia Salerni 2 65
 Victoria Azarenka 2 1
 Virginie Razzano 2 16
 Ágnes Szávay 1 995
 Alizé Cornet 1 11
 An-Sophie Mestach 1 98
 Anastasia Potapova 1 234
 Anikó Kapros 1 44
 Anna-Lena Grönefeld 1 14
 Annika Beck 1 37
 Arantxa Rus 1 61
 Ashleigh Barty 1 23
 Caroline Wozniacki 1 1
 Coco Vandeweghe 1 16
 Dalma Gálfi 1 136
 Daria Gavrilova 1 20
 Daria Kasatkina 1 24
 Elina Svitolina 1 3
 Elizaveta Kulichkova 1 87
 Eugenie Bouchard 1 5
 Grace Min 1 97
 Heather Watson 1 38
 Iroda Tulyaganova 1 16
 Jelena Dokić 1 4
 Jelena Janković 1 1
 Jelena Kostanić 1 32
 Jeļena Ostapenko 1 8
Justine Henin 1 1
 Kaia Kanepi 1 15
 Karolína Plíšková 1 1
 Katarina Srebotnik 1 20
 Kateryna Bondarenko 1 29
 Kayla Day 1 122
 Kristína Kučová 1 71
 Kristina Mladenovic 1 12
 Kristýna Plíšková 1 35
 Ksenia Pervak 1 37
 Laura Robson 1 27
 Lina Krasnoroutskaya 1 25
 Lourdes Domínguez 1 40
 Maria Kirilenko 1 10
 Marie Bouzková 1 169
 Marion Bartoli 1 7
 Michaëlla Krajicek 1 30
Mirjana Lucic 1 20
 Nadia Petrova 1 3
 Noppawan Lertcheewakarn 1 149
 Ons Jabeur 1 83
 Paula Badosa Gibert 1 193
 Rebeka Masarova 1 284
 Samantha Crawford 1 98
 Sesil Karatantcheva 1 35
 Shahar Pe’er 1 11
 Simona Halep 1 1
 Sofya Zhuk 1 143
 Taylor Townsend 1 94
 Tereza Mihalíková 1 429
 Urszula Radwańska 1 29
 Vera Dushevina 1 31
 Vera Lapko 1 180

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BOYS WINNERS OF GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS FROM THE YEAR 1997

YEAR AUSTRALIAN OPEN FRENCH OPEN WIMBLEDON US OPEN
1997 Daniel Elsner Daniel Elsner Wesley Whitehouse Arnaud di Pasquale
1998  Julien Jeanpierre  Fernando González  Roger Federer  David Nalbandian
1999  Kristian Pless  Guillermo Coria  Jürgen Melzer  Jarkko Nieminen
2000  Andy Roddick  Paul-Henri Mathieu  Nicolas Mahut  Andy Roddick
2001  Janko Tipsarević  Carlos Cuadrado  Roman Valent  Gilles Müller
2002  Clément Morel  Richard Gasquet  Todd Reid  Richard Gasquet
2003  Marcos Baghdatis  Stanislas Wawrinka  Florin Mergea  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
2004  Gaël Monfils  Gaël Monfils  Gaël Monfils  Andy Murray
2005  Donald Young  Marin Čilić  Jérémy Chardy  Ryan Sweeting
2006  Alexandre Sidorenko  Martin Kližan  Thiemo de Bakker  Dušan Lojda
2007  Brydan Klein  Vladimir Ignatic  Donald Young  Ričardas Berankis
2008  Bernard Tomic  Yang Tsung-hua  Grigor Dimitrov  Grigor Dimitrov
2009  Yuki Bhambri  Daniel Berta  Andrey Kuznetsov  Bernard Tomic
2010  Tiago Fernandes  Agustín Velotti  Márton Fucsovics  Jack Sock
2011  Jiří Veselý  Bjorn Fratangelo  Luke Saville  Oliver Golding
2012  Luke Saville  Kimmer Coppejans  Filip Peliwo  Filip Peliwo
2013  Nick Kyrgios  Christian Garín  Gianluigi Quinzi  Borna Ćorić
2014  Alexander Zverev  Andrey Rublev  Noah Rubin  Omar Jasika
2015  Roman Safiullin  Tommy Paul  Reilly Opelka  Taylor Fritz
2016  Oliver Anderson  Geoffrey Blancaneaux  Denis Shapovalov  Félix Auger-Aliassime
2017  Zsombor Piros  Alexei Popyrin  Alejandro Davidovich Fokina  Wu Yibing

Source: Wikipedia

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GIRLS WINNERS OF GRAND SLAM TOURNAMENTS FROM THE YEAR 1997

YEAR AUSTRALIAN OPEN FRENCH OPEN WIMBLEDON US OPEN
1997 Mirjana Lucic Justine Henin Cara Black Cara Black
1998  Jelena Kostanić  Nadia Petrova  Katarina Srebotnik  Jelena Dokić
1999  Virginie Razzano  Lourdes Domínguez  Iroda Tulyaganova  Lina Krasnoroutskaya
2000  Anikó Kapros  Virginie Razzano  María Emilia Salerni  María Emilia Salerni
2001  Jelena Janković  Kaia Kanepi  Angelique Widjaja  Marion Bartoli
2002  Barbora Strýcová  Angelique Widjaja  Vera Dushevina  Maria Kirilenko
2003  Barbora Strýcová  Anna-Lena Grönefeld  Kirsten Flipkens  Kirsten Flipkens
2004  Shahar Pe’er  Sesil Karatantcheva  Kateryna Bondarenko  Michaëlla Krajicek
2005  Victoria Azarenka  Ágnes Szávay  Agnieszka Radwańska  Victoria Azarenka
2006  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova  Agnieszka Radwańska  Caroline Wozniacki  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
2007  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova  Alizé Cornet  Urszula Radwańska  Kristína Kučová
2008  Arantxa Rus  Simona Halep  Laura Robson  Coco Vandeweghe
2009  Ksenia Pervak  Kristina Mladenovic  Noppawan Lertcheewakarn  Heather Watson
2010  Karolína Plíšková  Elina Svitolina  Kristýna Plíšková  Daria Gavrilova
2011  An-Sophie Mestach  Ons Jabeur  Ashleigh Barty  Grace Min
2012  Taylor Townsend  Annika Beck  Eugenie Bouchard  Samantha Crawford
2013  Ana Konjuh  Belinda Bencic  Belinda Bencic  Ana Konjuh
2014  Elizaveta Kulichkova  Daria Kasatkina  Jeļena Ostapenko  Marie Bouzková
2015  Tereza Mihalíková  Paula Badosa Gibert  Sofya Zhuk  Dalma Gálfi
2016  Vera Lapko  Rebeka Masarova  Anastasia Potapova  Kayla Day
2017  Marta Kostyuk  Whitney Osuigwe  Claire Liu  Amanda Anisimova

Source: Wikipedia

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