The probability of winning season Grand Slam for Djokovic and Alcaraz is very low

I wrote my opinion about Djokovic and his chance to win all four Grand Slams in one season. To cut it short, they are diminishing, though I decided to look at it from another angle, the angle of probabilities.

There is no better lead than the betting odds. They are ideal indicators of the market perception of players’ chances to win something.

Probabilities of players winning all four Grand Slams in 2024

as of October 2023

Novak Djokovic [24 Grand Slam titles] 2,21%
Carlos Alcaraz [2 Grand Slam titles] 1,97%
Daniil Medvedev [1 Grand Slam title] 0,02%

Iga Swiatek [4 Grand Slam titles] 0,89%
Aryna Sabalenka [1 Grand Slam title] 0,08%
Elena Rybakina [1 Grand Slam title] 0,03%
Coco Gauff [1 Grand Slam title] 0,01%

The probability of winning the season Grand Slam (winning all four Grand Slam tournaments) in 2024 for other players (not listed above) is below 0,00%.

By the way, Rafa Nadal is not a favourite to win the French Open 2024. Probably the first time in a long time, odds on Djokovic and Alcaraz are substantially lower than on Nadal.

The probability of Nadal winning the French Open 2024 is 20% (Alcaraz is at 40% and Djokovic 31%).

Check also what our readers think about the Grand Slam winners in 2024:

Who will win the Australian Open 2024?
Who will win the French Open 2024?
Who will win Wimbledon 2024?
Who will win the US Open 2024?


Posted in Betting Guide, BLOG, Tennis Column and tagged , .

Tennis Pro Guru

Simon is the leading editor of from 2015. He is an avid tennis player from age of 5, however, he never reached the pro level. Still, he likes playing tennis on different courts, with different rackets, and against different opponents. In his free time, you can find him watching all possible tennis matches he can find on the web or tv. Challenger or Grand Slam? It does not matter, just tennis matters.

He currently plays with:
Racket: Wilson Shift 99 V1
Strings: Babolat RPM Blast
Grip: Head Xtreme Soft
Shoes: Asics Gel Dedicate 7 (for hard outdoor and indoor courts) & Asics Gel-Game 5 Clay (for clay courts),
Balls: Dunlop Fort All Courts and Head Championship
Bag: Axiom Backpack

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